Google Outlines Shrinking Quantum Threat to RSA and Urges Post‑Quantum Transition

In a May 2025 blog post, Google researchers explain that ongoing improvements in quantum algorithms and error correction have sharply lowered estimates of the resources needed to factor RSA‑2048 keys with a quantum computer—potentially to around one million noisy qubits running for a week, down from prior estimates in the tens of millions. They emphasize that while practical quantum computers are still far from this scale, tracking these costs helps plan migration to post‑quantum cryptography (PQC) standards already published by NIST. The post stresses the importance of accelerating PQC adoption before large‑scale quantum threats materialize and discusses how “store now, decrypt later” attacks heighten urgency, particularly for asymmetric encryption and long‑lived signature keys, and notes work on PQC signatures in Cloud KMS. 

https://security.googleblog.com/2025/05/tracking-cost-of-quantum-factori.html

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