Bits of Work: Measuring Cryptanalytic Effort
a website created by cryptographer Matthew Green that estimates how much public cryptanalysis effort different public-key cryptographic assumptions have received, and what that effort would cost under assumed AI productivity . The project starts from roughly sixteen thousand candidate papers, classifies the cryptanalytic work on problems including ECDLP (elliptic-curve discrete logarithm), structured and plain lattices, and syndrome decoding, and converts publications into estimated research-allocation years through a person-level author map . A headline finding is that lattices have only recently overtaken elliptic curves on this cumulative measure—a reminder that the newer post-quantum assumptions have had far less time under adversarial scrutiny than the older ones most deployed systems rely on today . The site includes a detailed bibliography and a "who's working" section showing top cryptanalysis researchers by field . Caveats matter: the authors warn that publicatio...